After several months of disruption and uncertainty, financial markets have started to regain some stability as diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran continue. One of the most significant developments has been the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies. Earlier in the year, restrictions on shipping through the region […]
The UK economy continued to demonstrate resilience throughout May, although several indicators suggested that businesses and consumers remain cautious about the months ahead. Inflation continued its gradual decline, economic growth remained positive and employment conditions were broadly stable. However, concerns surrounding energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and investment activity became increasingly prominent as the month progressed. Alongside economic developments, the accounting […]
Overview Economic conditions in 2026 are characterised by low growth, persistent inflationary pressure, and elevated external risk. The UK economy continues to expand, but at a limited pace, with forecasts for annual GDP growth revised down to between 0.6% and 0.8%. This reflects the impact of higher energy prices, weaker global demand, and ongoing geopolitical disruption. Inflation remains […]
The UK economy entered 2026 on a fragile footing, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining persistent, and labour market conditions beginning to soften. While earlier expectations pointed toward a gradual recovery supported by potential interest rate cuts, recent data has underperformed forecasts, dampening optimism. The outlook is further complicated by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are expected to […]
This month’s economic update reviews recent developments in UK growth, inflation, the labour market, productivity, and business investment. Together these indicators provide insight into the current trajectory of the UK economy and the potential direction of future monetary policy decisions. Global trade developments, particularly those linked to US tariff policies, also remain an important backdrop for economic uncertainty. UK growth […]
The UK economy enters 2026 in a position of fragile stability rather than strong momentum. After a relatively solid start to 2025, growth slowed in the second half of the year as geopolitical uncertainty, weaker business confidence and tighter fiscal conditions weighed on activity. While the near term outlook remains subdued, there are indications that the economy is gradually moving […]
An Analysis of Turnover, Pricing, and Expectations Entering 2026 As the UK economy moves toward the start of 2026, businesses continue to operate in an environment shaped by uncertainty, cost pressures, and uneven demand across sectors. While trading activity remains widespread, financial performance indicators suggest a cautious and restrained outlook among firms of varying sizes. We explore recent patterns in […]
The final months of 2025 brought an unusual combination of subdued growth, shifting fiscal priorities and a complex global data environment. Reflecting on the recent economic developments reveals a picture of an economy that is neither in crisis nor in clear recovery. Instead, it appears held in a state of cautious restraint, with households, businesses and policymakers all navigating […]
The UK economy posted a stronger-than-expected growth of 0.7% in Q1 2025, a significant uptick from just 0.1% in the previous quarter. This growth came despite subdued sentiment and ongoing global trade tensions. – Services led the expansion, rising by 0.7%, with both consumer- and non-consumer-facing sectors contributing. Notably, admin, support services, and wholesale/retail saw solid gains, though accommodation, food, […]
The UK economy is showing tentative signs of recovery, but underlying challenges continue to weigh heavily. GDP grew by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, a modest improvement driven largely by the service sector. Manufacturing bounced back in February with a 2.2% uptick, but output remains below last year’s levels. Construction also nudged upward by 0.4%. Productivity, although […]